Newsletters
2018
July 2018 The Parliment Pages
TARIFFS AND TRUMP –
The big product news in our industry is the indecipherable situation regarding tariffs on steel and building products. Why is it indecipherable? Well there is a document (Harmonized Tariff Schedule) of over 50 pages that lists the products and the countries that the tariffs apply to. Furthermore, once the document was in our hands, we were told that it was already outdated as the Administration had decided to make changes. As the revised document was being prepared, there was yet another shift and more changes were made. In some cases, the changes reverted back to the original.
April 2018 The Parliment Pages
TRADE WARS –
We are in the building supply business. One of our monthly measurements of sales is the amount of tons we ship out. We use this measurement as a throw-back to the days when the vast majority of our products were steel derivative items. It should be quite obvious that when Trump announced his steel tariffs, we all sat up straight and paid attention.
January 2018 The Parliment Pages
ANNUAL PREDICTION TIME –
Based on our feedback, this is THE issue that everyone really looks forward to, probably because of our great success in predicting the trends for the coming year. This past year of 2017 was definitely an interesting year and a year that could be a prelude for a volatile and prosperous 2018
2017
October 2017 The Parliment Pages
THE WRATH OF MOTHER NATURE –
We typically write this newsletter over a period of a couple of weeks. No particular reason other than that is just the way it happens. So, when I started writing several weeks ago, Harvey had just hit and I composed much of the body talking about the impact of Harvey on our industry. Well, as you know Irma screamed her way through the Caribbean and up the spine of Florida. And if that wasn’t enough, Maria just devastated other parts of the Caribbean, especially the heavily populated island of Puerto Rico.
July 2017 The Parliment Pages
A LOT OF MOVING PARTS RIGHT NOW –
I have always thought business is like playing that kid’s game “Whack-A-Mole.” For those that have not played that game, it is a wonderful metaphor for so much in life. You, as the gamer, have a big wooden hammer. You stand in front of a board that has a dozen or so holes in it. Unpredictably, a mole will suddenly and randomly pop out of one of the holes and you have to hit it back into its hole. However, as you whack him, another pops up out of a different hole. The game progressively gets faster and faster until you are overwhelmed by number of moles popping out.
April 2017 The Parliment Pages
Whatever your political persuasion, it is very sad to see the polarization that is now taking
place in this country. TV journalism has turned into nothing but paid political commentary. I
think a result of this is that, I fear, there is no place where we can now go to get legitimate
news that is not colored and slanted by a network or reporter’s interest. If we cannot trust
our news sources, we will continue to be ill-informed.
January 2017 The Parliment Pages
Based on our feedback, this is THE issue that everyone really looks forward to, probably because of our previous success in predicting the trends for the coming year. Well, before we get into our numerous predictions, it is really incumbent that we examine the results of the recent elections, and the effect they may have on business in general, and specifically our industry.
2016
October 2016 The Parliment Pages
A LITTLE PERSPECTIVE IS NEEDED –
Once again, all of the various economic reports are sending a lot of mixed messages. Some say numbers are down and trending negatively while yet others are saying we are maintaining a steady rate of growth. Overall, we tend to believe that we continue on the steady climb. However, we acknowledge that the growth isn’t anything to be excited about. Let’s put things in perspective
April 2016 The Parliment Pages
This is not a good time of the year to hang around with me. I spent the better part of last weekend assembling all of the information necessary to get my tax return prepared. First, let’s understand that I am a former CPA and yet, in spite of that training and experience, I do not feel qualified to do my own taxes. Therefore, just the vast complexity of my return and a 74,000 page tax code, requires me to hire and pay for outside assistance. That outside assistance is not cheap and is just one more example of the “hidden” cost of tax compliance.
January 2016 The Parliment Pages
It’s amazing, but this issue marks the 12th time we have put our annual industry predictions out there. Obviously, it is always with a little bit of trepidation that we pull out last year’s issue and see just how we did. Well, we are pleased to report that we were spot on with what actually happened. In fact, with the exception of the crash, which we as well as many others missed, we have pretty much been on target every year.
2015
October 2015 The Parliment Pages
Overall, there are a lot of good things happening. Existing home sales have been doing very well, up over 10% from a year ago. It is expected this number will continue to improve for the foreseeable future. However, as we dig deeper, you will see the news is even better. Last year, all-cash buyers, accounted for 32% of the sales. All-cash buyers are typically investors who can be real fickle when market conditions deteriorate. That percentage has dropped to 22% in the current year which portends a much more stable group of buyers. To confirm this, mortgage backed sales are up over 25% from previous years. Mortgages equate to homeowners as opposed to renters renting from investors. Again, this is a sign of stability.
July 2015 The Parliment Pages
We led off last quarter’s newsletter with the banner headline of “What a Confusing Mess.” We discussed the apparent disconnect between what we see and what we read. We now see a lot of promising indicators. New developments are shooting up. Infrastructure construction is underway. Contractors are showing more optimism and higher risk tolerances. And yet against this backdrop, we saw hard and fast economic indicators that just didn’t support much optimism.
April 2015 Overall Economic News
WHAT A CONFUSING MESS –
As we talk with our customers and vendors, we hear nothing but high levels of optimism and sales growth. As you drive around, you see development after development starting to take form. You hear predictions that once the snow melts, construction is finally going to hit its stride and get back on an aggressive growth curve.
January 2015 Overall Economic News
As you know, Parliment is located in Jacksonville, which is also the home of the NFL Jaguars. According to the coaches of the 3 wins and 13 losses team, this was a rebuilding year and the foundations are in place for next year. On the surface all indicators point to that very fact. The team is young, has talent and a coach that everyone believes in. The problem is that we, the fans, have heard that same line at this time of the year for the past 8 years. For 8 years, the Jags have had a young team, full of talent with a good coach. And yet, every year ends up being the same or worse than the previous year. It’s like the team is stuck in slow curing concrete and just can’t get out of the mess.
2014
October 2014 The Parliment Pages
We, at Parliment are clearly believers in a free market society. We believe the natural movements of markets will eventually solve most problems that arise in commerce. Unfortunately, our government does not believe in free market and the leadership of this country for years has believed that they can fix the natural forces of a free market through laws, regulation, and incentives.
July 2014 The Parliment Pages
In almost all of our previous editions, we have made some level of reference to the internationalization of the business world. It is so easy for us to cruise down Main Street every morning and not realize the size of the world around us and its potential impact on our small part of the planet.
April 2014 Overall Economic News
That is the question and the more you read, the more you see differing and contrasting opinions. Never before have we seen such a divergence combined with such extremes. Let’s explore what each position expounds.
2013
October 2013 Overall Economic News
In the past month or so there has been a lot written about the effect of interest rates on the housing industry. This is a subject much more complex than just what is happening to mortgage rates. The impact carries both short and long term ramifications with corresponding relationships for the economy as a whole.
July 2013 Overall Economic News
Addressing the four of these in the same paragraph is virtually impossible. Not because they are such big subjects by themselves but rather because they are sending contradictory signals. First, let’s look at the Federal Reserve Bank. They have stated that they will continue to support the economy through their bond purchase program (more about that later) as long as the economy shows no signs of real improvement and unemployment stays above 6.5%. The conundrum that this creates is quite interesting. As was seen in the past couple of weeks, just the hint of the Federal Reserve backing off on their support sent the stock market into a downward spiral. It was only after they retracted their inflammatory statements that the market recovered.
April 2013 Overall Economic News
As the opening days of baseball are upon us, we are beginning to see something in this season other than strikeouts. In fact, the bases are loaded and we have our power slugger at bat. On first base, we have low interest rates. On second, we have housing affordability and on third sits pent-up demand. The batter is equipped with the lowest inventory of new homes in years. This is the scenario that we have been waiting for. Let’s address each of these.
January 2013 Our Annual Predictions
As is customary, the January issue of this newsletter is always the one where we go out on a limb and make our predictions for the upcoming year. It is always interesting for us to look back one year ago and see how close our predictions were. We were again pleasantly surprised when we saw that we were spot on for 2012. With this track record to maintain, the pressure is on for our look at 2013.
2012
October 2012 Overall Economic News
On September 3, Parliment celebrated it's ten-year anniversary. Anniversaries, especially the big ones, will almost always lead to some retrospective thinking. Some of that thinking will be bad, but generally thoughts revolve around the positive. As the news of our anniversary got out, we had a number of people ask us for what we thought were the primary reasons for our success. We thought we would list our key elements, one for each year of our business life.
July 2012 Overall Economic News
Throughout the day, my mind will continually be looking for subjects of interest for my various newsletter publications. I have to admit, it is becoming more and more difficult to find subject matter in our industry. We seem to be stuck on top of the fence and can't seem to even lean one way or the other let alone fall off.
April 2012 Overall Economic News
Over the past 45 days, I have spent an extensive amount of time talking with business owners from all around the country. Many were in our industry, some were in related industries, while others came from a totally different direction. The purpose of these calls was just to try to get a pulse on expectations for the coming year.
January 2012 Overall Economic News
We think the size of the pie is going to remain about the same. More people will leave the table which will again create opportuntities for growth for those that are aggressive. We have seen some marked improvement in some of the statistics that are coming from the Ministery of Propaganda in Washington. Annualized housing starts in November hit the highest level in over 3 years. This is, indeed, good news but probably not as good as it appears on the surface. First, good weather throughout the country contributed significantly to these starts. Additionally, the majority of these starts were in multi-family construction which is the least expensive category. However, it is still progress.
2011
October 2011 Overall Economic News
I have the fortune of having spent over 45 years as a business person in an unbelievably wide variety of positions, industries, and even countries. I have seen change so radical that it numbs the mind trying to keep up with it. I have seen fads, quick fixes, economic "miracles," super hero leaders with several cases of snake oil mixed in as well. It is so easy to get caught up in the excitement of these changes that it is very easy to lose sight of the big picture.
July 2011 Overall Economic News
Two shoe manufacturers sent sales reps to the interior of Africa to assess the market. The first sent a message back saying, "No one here wears shoes. It doesn’t look like there is a market. Coming home on next flight." The second, sent a different message, "No one here wears shoes. I think the market is unlimited and will be staying indefinitely."
April 2011 Overall Economic News
It sure feels good to be busy again. One of the methods for measuring our internal results has always been through the use of 12 month moving averages (12 mma). Without getting into detail, the use of 12 mma takes out seasonal fluctuations and month to month variances. When you plot a 12 mma on a graph and compare it to a regular monthly plot, real trends become more apparent.
January 2011 Overall Economic News
In the past couple of years, I have really sweated this annual prediction time. There was so much uncertainty, confusion, and conflicting opinions that it was scary to make any type of prediction. While it is still a scary world out there, this year I certainly feel much more comfortable in putting to paper our expectations for 2011.
2010
October 2010 Overall Economic News
As has been so typical over the past few months, the rhetoric concerning the upcoming elections has been all over the place. Many say it will change the direction of the country radically, others say it will slow things down. There are many, who think it will really not have much impact on life as we see it today.
July 2010 Overall Economic News
Let's go back two years. At that time, under the leadership of President George W. Bush, the United States was accumulating the largest budget deficit in history. It was estimated to be somewhere north of $300 billion for that fiscal year. Many economists were stating that this was sure to cause dollar devaluation, inflation and increasing interest rates.
January 2010 Overall Economic News
Instead of just throwing out the predictions, I think a little drum roll and introduction is called for. I want everyone to have a good understanding of the �why� of our predictions instead of just the �whats.� So hold on and read a few pages, the predictions are in this issue someplace
April 2010 Overall Economic News
For years our industry and, in particular, our newsletter have closely tracked housing starts and permits. We have used those numbers as predictors of the future and have made many business plans on those iconic statistics. While I don�t want to dismiss them totally, I am beginning to see that something else might do a better job of illuminating the future.
2009
October 2009 Overall Economic News
On September 2, two different nationally recognized newspapers had the following headlines:
"August Sees Fewer Job Cuts Announced"
"Companies Cut More Jobs Than Forecast in August"
I had to read these a couple of times to make sure that they are totally contradictory to each other. But then I started to realize that we are filled with contradictory news every day. Some prominent government and private economic sources are predicting a rapid recovery and a return to the years past. Some are saying we are stuck in position for a while and yet others are forecasting a doom and gloom scenario where the country will enter into the biggest depression ever. This is exhausting.
July 2009 Overall Economic News
Last quarter we talked about the initial stages of the economic recovery. You may recall that we related some of the subtle signs that presage a recovery. Well, the good news is that those signs have held to historical perspective and there is a broad based consensus that the recovery is in place and anytime now, there will be an official announcement about the end of the recession.
April 2009 Overall Economic News
There is a bit of a smile on our faces as it appears that our predictions made a few months ago are spot on. Some of you will recall that we went against all conventional wisdom and predicted the following: friendly press towards Obama which leads to a move up in consumer sentiment which leads to an upswing in consumer spending which results in a turnaround of the economy.
January 2009 Overall Economic News
You are going to read some predictions in this newsletter that will be contrary to virtually every economic authority out there. Is there a chance of realism in these predictions or are these predictions just wishful thinking? Unlike many, we are approaching 2009 with a degree of optimism. We do not believe it to be unfounded and truly believe in the merits of what we forecast.
2008
September 2008 Overall Economic News
Each quarter I gather pages and pages of supporting research in an effort to do the very best I can on this newsletter. Our data is good and our analysis is sound and the predictive results have been extremely accurate. We have predicted price increases on materials, fuel costs, interest rates and product shortages.
July 2008 Overall Economic News
Over the last month, my wife and I had time returning to our birthplaces and revisiting our past. Boy, what a shock! We retraced the paths that we walked to school, and sadly, we must admit it was not 10 miles and a 2 hour walk in the freezing snow and wind.
April 2008 Overall Economic News
Over the past couple of months, you have seen a gradual run-up in pricing on rebar. We have heard countless complaints and have had blame placed on everything from the greedy steel companies, to government conspiracy, to sunspots.
January 2008 Overall Economic News
There is no doubt in our minds that we will see a gradual increase month over month throughout 2008. We think, starting in January, that our sales will increase about 1� % each month on a 12 month rolling average basis. That will give us an overall increase of about 12% over 2007 results.
2007
October 2007 Overall Economic News
I have a great friend and business associate who has a remarkably successful business in the medical supply segment. He and I visit regularly and spend most of our time talking business. No matter how many questions I have asked and how many countless hours we have spent talking, I just can�t seem to understand his business.
January 2007 Overall Economic News
No matter how you ask it, the question is always the same, "Where is our industry headed?" We gave a preview of our predictions last quarter, and it turns out that those previews were pretty much on target with what we see now.
2006
October 2006 Overall Economic News
I remember last year when I visited my physician for my annual check-up. At the conclusion, he pronounced me in perfect health. "However," he said as I was about to leave, "That doesn�t mean that you won�t catch a cold or the flu sometime."
April 2006 Overall Economic News
This great country of ours is great because of basic fundamental values that our founding fathers believed in. One of those was the freedom of press. While we should be eternally grateful for that freedom, I sure do wish they had also mandated that the reporting must be fair and accurate.
January 2006 Overall Economic News
Several weeks ago I was having dinner with a customer. We were talking about this particular newsletter and the subject of all of our �predictions� came up. He was most curious as to how we made the predictions and how uncannily accurate they were.
2005
July 2005 Overall Economic News
Last month I was in Syracuse, New York giving a presentation to a group of business owners. Since Syracuse is not a great hub of travel with continuous flights out, I finished my program and found that I had a little over 4 hours to kill before my flight left.
April 2005 Overall Economic News
On a recent vacation trip to the Caribbean, I had the experience of following a fully loaded redi-mix truck up a very steep hill. The truck was groaning along at about 3/4 Mile per Hour. As I was crawling along behind that truck it suddenly dawned on me that there was less than 1 Mile per Hour separating me from going up the hill and from being squashed.
January 2005 Overall Economic News
Our January issue of this newsletter is our annual prediction time. Unlike last year, when we correctly predicted unprecedented changes in the market, this year we see nothing radical. The economy will enter the doldrums, but that sounds only scary until you define the doldrums!
2004
December 2004 Overall Economic News
For those of us in the construction industry, let me give you two unbelievable statistics from 2003. The good ole� US of A last year consumed slightly over 9 million metric tons on steel rebar. Not a bad year and on par with previous years.
September 2004 Overall Economic News
It never ceases to amaze me how the information that we hear through the media is so contrary to the reality of the facts. If you tune into the national network and news stations, you will hear nothing but doom and gloom.
June 2004 Overall Economic News
If people truly vote their pocket book, George Bush will be a shoo-in come November. Consumer spending reached a 48 year high last month. Consumer confidence is at its highest level in years.
